Book Titles

Claims for correct intuitions in an unpredictable situation are self-delusional at best, sometimes worse.

Remember this rule: intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment.

Whether professionals have a chance to develop intuitive expertise depends essentially on the quality and speed of feedback, as well as on sufficient opportunity to practice.

Expertise is not a single skill; it is a collection of skills, and the same professional may be highly expert in some of the tasks in her domain while remaining a novice in others.

The unrecognized limits of professional skill help explain why experts are often overconfident.

There are many ways for any plan to fail, and although most of them are too improbable to be anticipated, the likelihood that something will go wrong in a big project is high.

In the competition with the inside view, the outside view doesn’t stand a chance.

This should not come as a surprise: overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects are found everywhere.

The authors of unrealistic plans are often driven by the desire to get the plan approved – whether by their superiors or by a client – supported by the knowledge that projects are rarely abandoned unfinished merely because of overruns in costs or completion times.

…responsibility for avoiding the planning fallacy lies with the decision makers who approve the plan.