Book Titles

…anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

In the absence of a competing intuition, logic prevails.

…hostile stereotyping can have dreadful consequences, but the psychological facts cannot be avoided: stereotypes, both correct and false, are how we think of categories.

It is useful to remember… that neglecting valid stereotypes inevitably results in suboptimal judgments.

Changing one’s mind about human nature is hard work, and changing one’s mind for the worse about oneself is even harder.

You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.

…rewards for improved performance work better than punishment of mistakes.

To think clearly about the future, we need to clean up the language that we use in labeling the beliefs we had in the past.

Considering how little we know, the confidence we have in our beliefs is preposterous – and it is also essential.

…errors of prediction are inevitable because the world is unpredictable.