Book Titles

…high subjective confidence is not to be trusted as an indicator of accuracy (low confidence could be more informative).

The line that separates the possibly predictable future from the unpredictable distant future is yet to be drawn.

…human decision makers are inferior to a prediction formula even when they are given the score suggested by the formula!

…there are few circumstances under which it is a good idea to substitute judgment for a formula.

Simple equally weighted formulas based on existing statistics or common sense are often very good predictors of significant outcomes.

The aversion to algorithms making decisions that affect humans is rooted in the strong preference that many people have for the natural over the synthetic or artificial.

…for most people, the cause of a mistake matters.

…the mystery of knowing without knowing is not a distinctive feature of intuition; it is the norm of mental life.

…expertise in a domain is not a single skill but rather a large collection of miniskills.

It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable world.