Book Titles

Unchecked, optimism leads to unrealistic forecasts, poorly defined goals, better options ignored, problems not spotted and dealt with, and no contingencies to counteract the inevitable surprises.

Shouldn’t we learn from those painful experiences? We should indeed. But to do that, we must pay attention to experience. And unfortunately, too often we do not.

For us to be so consistently wrong, we must consistently ignore experience. And we do, for various reasons.

Using a best-case scenario as the basis for an estimate is a really bad idea because the best case is seldom the most likely way the future will unfold.

Planning is working on the project. Progress in planning is progress on the project, often the most cost-effective you can achieve. We lose sight of these facts at our peril.

…estimates aren’t intended to be accurate; they are intended to sell the project.

Problems and challenges overlooked are problems and challenges that won’t increase the estimate.

…the public is likely to be swayed by sunk costs, so sticking with a fallacy is politically safer than making a logical decision.

We should be careful not to see psychology and politics as separate forces; they can be mutually reinforcing and typically are in big projects.

Don’t assume you know all there is to know.