This should not come as a surprise: overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects are found everywhere.
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…it’s no surprise that one of the most common, and most important, coaching topics is helping a new product manager learn to manage her time.
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Unchecked, optimism leads to unrealistic forecasts, poorly defined goals, better options ignored, problems not spotted and dealt with, and no contingencies to counteract the inevitable surprises.
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Many small probabilities added together equal a large probability that at least some of those nasty surprises will actually come to pass.
