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The best forecasters view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing.

The best forecasters are high in active open-mindedness.

…forecasters can improve by generating a list of separate events with deep structural similarities, rather than focusing only on internal details of the specific event in question.

…thinkers who tolerate ambiguity make the best forecasts…

Unchecked, optimism leads to unrealistic forecasts, poorly defined goals, better options ignored, problems not spotted and dealt with, and no contingencies to counteract the inevitable surprises.

…the root cause of why delivery fails often lies outside delivery, in forecasting, years before delivery was even begun.

Use a good anchor, and you greatly improve your chance of making a good forecast; use a bad anchor, get a bad forecast.

…research revealed that people will anchor in almost any number they happen to be exposed to prior to making their forecast.

Although there’s very little danger that a forecaster will ignore the inside view, overlooking the outside view is routine. That’s a fatal error.

…forget about forecasting risk; go directly to mitigation by spotting and eliminating dangers.