 |
The kinds of differences that best lend themselves to dovetailing are differences in interests, in beliefs, in the value placed on time, in forecasts, and in aversion to risk.
|
75 |
 |
…investors are not looking for detailed forecasts containing every conceivable line item. They’re looking for the big picture and trying to understand the kinds of assumptions that you’re making about your business.
|
154 |
 |
…forecasting is not a respectable human activity and not worthwhile beyond the shortest of periods. Strategic planning is necessary precisely because we cannot forecast.
|
124 |
 |
…forecasting the future is really just the delicate delineation of life’s uncertainties, helped by consistently glancing backward twice as far as you look ahead.
|
213 |
 |
Thousands of studies confirm that human forecasts are flawed and biased. Human decision making is not so great either.
|
010 |
 |
It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable world.
|
241 |
 |
This should not come as a surprise: overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects are found everywhere.
|
250 |
 |
When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional optimism rather than a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities.
|
252 |
 |
We… tend to exaggerate our ability to forecast the future, which fosters optimistic overconfidence.
|
255 |
 |
A value creation system must be flexible and responsive because forecasts are always wrong.
|
326 |
